Employment: The south and west of France are expected to experience major labor shortages by 2030

Employment: The south and west of France are expected to experience major labor shortages by 2030

Severe labor shortages are expected in southern and western France by 2030, adding to the already serious recruitment difficulties in certain sectors such as IT or domestic help, reveals a study published this Tuesday 24 January.

A severe lack ahead. According to a study carried out by the Statistics Service of the Ministry of Labor (Dares) and France Strategy, almost 760,000 jobs would need to be filled each year (mainly due to retirements) for just 640,000 young professionals who would enter the labor market. A deficit that could be difficult to close, especially in certain regions.

According to this study, this phenomenon can be explained by the future massive attrition of baby boomers in the 1960s, the researchers say. Because of this “significant imbalance”, the occupations that would become more difficult to fill by 2030 would account for around 25% of jobs in 2019.

In detail, certain professions would come under increasing pressure across the board: drivers, administrative employees, commercial managers, maintenance workers, domestic help… An unattractive job for domestic helpers with many seniors, vacancies by 2030 would thus be between a quarter and half of current jobs, compared to an average of 5% for all occupations.

South and West particularly affected

However, if one takes into account the exits at the end of working life, the number of vacancies varies from region to region due to economic and demographic characteristics. According to the study, this aggravation of tensions would therefore “be more pronounced in the southern and western areas, where the labor market is already very tight”.

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This is explained by the dynamism of employment (in Occitania, twice as high as the national average), in particular in the fast-growing professions (study and research staff, engineers and industrial managers, computer scientists…).

In the case of computer engineers, the unmet need would account for between a fifth and a third of current jobs in Brittany, Pays de la Loire, New-Aquitaine and Occitania. If this labor market “attracts workers from other regions (mainly from the Paris region) under the influence of cities, the climate and the presence of coasts,” these flows “will not be enough to balance the labor market to the extent that young entrants would be less involved Number”.

The Atlantic coast “does indeed benefit from an influx of pensioners or childless households and may suffer from the departure of young people to study or seek a first job elsewhere”. Recruitment difficulties are therefore likely to worsen, particularly in Brittany (42% of employment under increasing pressure by 2030), Pays de la Loire (36%) and New Aquitaine (33%).

Finding solutions to fill in the gaps

Conversely, Île-de-France would have the lowest employment share under increasing pressure (11%) due to a younger demographic. With a wide range of higher education, the Ile-de-France region is indeed the place of study for many young people who also start their careers there.

The less densely populated inland regions (Bourgogne-Franche-Comté and Centre-Val de Loire) as well as Grand Est and Hauts-de-France show “less pronounced imbalances due to weaker job creation”.

‘To balance needs and labor pools, it will be necessary to hire professionals who are in another profession, unemployed, inactive or immigrant,’ the study’s authors note.

“Training is one of the means of promoting a match between labor demand and demand. But it alone cannot solve all the difficulties of the attractiveness of the professions, which also require action from employers, ”they conclude.

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